COLUMN-Auto tariff FX pain is hitting close to home: McGeever

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(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

By Jamie McGeever

ORLANDO, Florida, March 27 (Reuters) - While auto company shares around the world are wilting following U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to slap aggressive tariffs on imported cars, the currencies of the most-affected countries are holding up surprisingly well.

Trump said on Wednesday that a 25% tariff on imported vehicles will take effect on April 3. There will be some delays and exemptions, of course, but this could potentially add another $55 billion to the cost of finished vehicles.

The United States imported $220 billion of finished cars and vehicles last year, of which 22% came from Mexico, 18% from Japan, 17% from Korea, 13% from Canada and 11% from Germany. Imports of all auto products totaled $474 billion.

Given these figures, the reaction of equity markets on Thursday was unsurprising: shares of South Korea's Hyundai fell 4.3%, roughly three times more than the broader KOSPI's loss, and some $16 billion was wiped off Japan's transport index.

German auto shares fell too, extending their losses to 10% over the last three weeks, a period in which the broader DAX has flat lined. Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect shares in "all exposed" European auto companies to fall a further 5-7% in the near term.

But the FX market's reaction was mixed. The Mexican peso fell 1%, and both the yen and Canadian dollar slipped around 0.3%. But the euro and South Korean won rose 0.3%.

Indeed, the currencies of the four largest auto-exporters to the U.S. - Mexico, Japan, Canada and South Korea - are all stronger against the U.S. dollar so far this year. And with the exception of the Korean won, they are also all up since Trump's inauguration on January 20.

The euro is obviously a special case because it is shared by 20 countries and has been propelled higher in recent weeks by Germany's fiscal pivot. Regardless, the euro is also firmer against the greenback this year.

On the face of it, this is a head-scratcher. The hit to these economies will be significant if the proposed tariffs are fully implemented and kept in place for some time.

But zoom out a little further, and a clearer picture emerges: one of U.S. dollar weakness.

A DOLLAR STORY

While the 'Tariff Man's' protectionist trade agenda could have positive benefits for the U.S. economy over the long term, the short-term impact is clearly negative. The tariff talk is damaging U.S. consumer and business confidence, and market sentiment, much more than these threats are hurting other economies.

And U.S. consumers have reason to be skittish.

Morgan Stanley estimates that, all else being equal, the 25% tariff on auto imports equates to a price increase of more than $90 billion across the industry, or nearly $6,000 per unit on average. Arthur Wheaton, director at Cornell's School of Industrial and Labor Relations, reckons vehicle prices could shoot up by as much as $20,000.

For a country that uses and loves cars as much as America, that would be extremely painful.

Trump's tariffs also appear to be one reason overseas investors are reassessing their U.S. assets. Foreign investors are reducing exposure to Uncle Sam for economic, political and valuation reasons. And non-dollar currencies are benefiting in turn.

"It's mostly a capital flight story. The tariffs are bad for Canada, Mexico and other countries, but investors are also fleeing U.S. assets," says Brent Donnelly, president of trading and analytics firm Spectra Markets.

The auto exporters' currencies aren't immune to the escalating trade war. The Canadian dollar slumped to a four and a half year low last month, and the peso could well come under more pressure due to the auto sector's relatively large footprint in Mexico's economy.

But right now, the currency feeling the whiplash most from Trump's tariffs may be the U.S. dollar.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

(By Jamie McGeever; editing by Diane Craft)

(c) Reuters 2025. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of companies around the world.

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