COLUMN-Auto tariff FX pain is hitting close to home: McGeever
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
By
Trump said on Wednesday that a 25% tariff on imported
vehicles will take effect on
Given these figures, the reaction of equity markets on
Thursday was unsurprising: shares of South Korea's Hyundai fell
4.3%, roughly three times more than the broader KOSPI's loss,
and some
German auto shares fell too, extending their losses to 10% over the last three weeks, a period in which the broader DAX has flat lined. Analysts at Morgan Stanley expect shares in "all exposed" European auto companies to fall a further 5-7% in the near term.
But the FX market's reaction was mixed. The Mexican peso fell 1%, and both the yen and Canadian dollar slipped around 0.3%. But the euro and South Korean won rose 0.3%.
Indeed, the currencies of the four largest auto-exporters to
the U.S. -
The euro is obviously a special case because it is shared by
20 countries and has been propelled higher in recent weeks by
On the face of it, this is a head-scratcher. The hit to these economies will be significant if the proposed tariffs are fully implemented and kept in place for some time.
But zoom out a little further, and a clearer picture emerges: one of U.S. dollar weakness.
A DOLLAR STORY
While the 'Tariff Man's' protectionist trade agenda could have positive benefits for the U.S. economy over the long term, the short-term impact is clearly negative. The tariff talk is damaging U.S. consumer and business confidence, and market sentiment, much more than these threats are hurting other economies.
And U.S. consumers have reason to be skittish.
Morgan Stanley estimates that, all else being equal, the 25%
tariff on auto imports equates to a price increase of more than
For a country that uses and loves cars as much as America, that would be extremely painful.
Trump's tariffs also appear to be one reason overseas investors are reassessing their U.S. assets. Foreign investors are reducing exposure to Uncle Sam for economic, political and valuation reasons. And non-dollar currencies are benefiting in turn.
"It's mostly a capital flight story. The tariffs are bad for
The auto exporters' currencies aren't immune to the
escalating trade war. The Canadian dollar slumped to a four and
a half year low last month, and the peso could well come under
more pressure due to the auto sector's relatively large
footprint in
But right now, the currency feeling the whiplash most from Trump's tariffs may be the U.S. dollar.
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
(By
(c) Reuters 2025. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content, including by caching, framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters. Reuters and the Reuters sphere logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of the Reuters group of companies around the world.

Related News
-
MT Newswires - 19 minutes ago
-
US STOCKS-S&P 500, Nasdaq at over six-month lows as tariffs spark recession fears
Reuters - 10:13 AM ET 3/31/2025
-
US STOCKS SNAPSHOT-Wall Street opens sharply lower on tariff worries
Reuters - 9:32 AM ET 3/31/2025
-
Gold Rises to Another Record High as Falling Stock Markets Continue to Prompt Safe-Haven Buying
MT Newswires - 9:31 AM ET 3/31/2025
-
Sector Update: Energy Stocks Steady Premarket Monday
MT Newswires - 9:23 AM ET 3/31/2025
-
Sector Update: Financial Stocks Decline Pre-Bell Monday
MT Newswires - 9:18 AM ET 3/31/2025
-
Sector Update: Health Care Stocks Fall Pre-Bell Monday
MT Newswires - 9:14 AM ET 3/31/2025