Shell-shocked markets brace for more tariff tumult

Investors will look for signs the stock market may be close to at least a short-term bottom after Trump's tariffs rocked global asset prices this week. The benchmark S&P 500 lodged its biggest weekly drop since
More volatility could be in store ahead of the
"The playbook on this is very, very unclear for everybody," said
With the steep slide at the end of the week, the S&P 500 was down over 17% from its
"The markets could be their own worst enemy," said
Trump's tariffs would amount to the highest trade barriersin more than a century, including a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and higher targeted duties on dozens of countries.
The trade battle escalated on Friday when
Investors downgraded their economic and earnings forecasts, with JPMorgan analysts raising the risk of a global recession this year to 60% from 40% before.
Some investors held out hope that Trump would negotiate deals in coming days with some countries that would roll back some of the tariffs. Others were dubious that Trump would make any concessions.
Despite Trump's opportunity to pivot, "it is not lost on us that the window is shrinking and some damage to consumer and business confidence may have been done already regardless of the negotiated ending point to follow," Citi strategist
One sign of gloom: The Cboe Volatility Index, an options-based measure of investor anxiety, registered its highest closing level since
Bearish sentiment in the
With tariffs clouding the outlook, investors are wary of dour financial forecasts as U.S. companies kick off quarterly reports in earnest in the coming week. S&P 500 earnings are expected to have climbed 7.8% in the first quarter from the year ago period, according to LSEG IBES.
Companies set to report next week include major banks JPMorgan and Wells Fargo due on
"We see a lot of uncertainty in the earnings outlook at the moment," said
The market selloff and increasing pessimism could mean the bar is lower for news that would buoy stocks, said
"If you had anything that was even remotely positive right now, you could see a short-term spark because people are braced for the negative outcome," Lerner said.
Also in the coming week, the monthly consumer price index report on Thursday could help set a baseline for U.S. inflation ahead of the impact from tariffs, which are widely expected to add to pricing pressures.
Investors have been factoring in more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year in the wake of the tariff announcement, with Fed fund futures accounting for 100 basis points of easing this year, according to LSEG data.
Fed Chair
Palma, of Cohen & Steers, said it was critical for markets to show some stability in the coming days.
"We've had two really, really big days in terms of sharp market moves," Palma said. "What we really don't want to see is that starts to create some vicious cycle that itself destabilizes the financial system."
(Reporting by
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