US refiners' shares hit near two-year lows as Trump tariffs spur fuel demand fears

Top refiners
Nations around the world have readied retaliatory tariffs and on Friday,
"We consider the adoption of the 'reconciliatory tariffs' will result in weaker global GDP growth and so lower oil demand growth, oil prices and weaker refining margins, as exemplified by the futures markets over recent days,"
Crude futures closed at their lowest in more than three years on Friday, with Brent diving 6.5% to
For the week, both benchmarks tumbled nearly 11% in their biggest weekly loss in percentage terms since 2023.
The impact on crude was more instantaneous than on U.S. gasoline and diesel futures, which in comparison fell about 8% in the week.
However, the new levies are fueling a trade war that will weigh on the global economy and the consumption of refined products, analysts said.
"While crude oil and refined products have been range-bound for most of the year battling the constant tariffs and sanctions hot air, this implementation of sweeping tariffs has forced the market to re-examine demand," energy analysts at
The refining sector is already over-supplied and so its margin recovery is heavily dependent upon the trajectory for demand growth, Wood Mackenzie's Gelder said.
Global gasoline demand is expected to peak this year at around 28 million barrels per day (bpd) amid surging electric vehicle adoption and improving vehicle efficiency, particularly in
"We are now expecting much lower demand growth in 2025 and in 2026, so not only do the tariffs stall the recovery in refining margins we previously forecast in 2026, but they also drive refining margins lower, perhaps back to 2021 levels," Gelder said.
Shares of Marathon, which is the top U.S. refiner by volume, fell nearly 6% at
Valero, the No. 2 U.S. refiner by capacity, dropped around 8% to
Phillips 66's shares decreased around 8% to
Meanwhile, the energy index sank around 6% on Friday.
(Reporting by
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