Oil Prices Fall to Four-Year Low on Trade Wars and Rising OPEC+ Supply

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08:38 AM EDT, 04/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Oil traded at the lowest in four years early on Friday, tumbling for a second day along with wider markets as the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade wars continues.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for May delivery was last seen down US$5.70 to US$61.25 per barrel, the lowest since February, 2021, while June Brent crude sunk US$5.25 to US$64.89.

The drop comes as countries begin to retaliate against Trump's Wednesday imposition of widespread blanket tariffs against most U.S. trading partners, measures that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said signaled the end of "the 80-year period when the United States embraced the mantle of global economic leadership, when it forged alliances rooted in trust and mutual respect and championed the free and open exchange of goods and services".

China, now subject to tariffs of more than 50% on its exports to the United States, on Friday imposed a 34% levy on imports from the United States, damaging global trade flows and raising risks of a recession that may slash oil demand.

"The preliminary estimate of the negative impact of US tariffs from our economists is at least 50 (basis points) on global GDP growth and potentially twice as much. We estimate this would imply 250-500kb/d negative impact on oil demand growth, close to half of our 2025 growth forecast of 1.1Mb/d at the upper end," UBS noted.

The trade wars come as the market was already well supplied on rising production outside of OPEC. The cartel and its allies in OPEC+ on Thursday said they will speed the return of 2.2-million barrels per day of production cuts by increasing the May tranche of supply additions by 411,000 barrels per day, three times higher than its initial plan to return the barrels over 18 months, as the eight countries that made the cuts retaliate against over production from other members.

"By announcing the surprise increase after President Trump's tariff liberation day announcements, key OPEC producers are also signaling that they are not so wedded to higher prices that they will tolerate perpetual cheating. Certainly, we see Riyadh as in a better position to endure a period of lower prices than other OPEC producers," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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