Monetary Policy Stance Appropriate Amid High Macro Uncertainty, New York Fed's Williams Says
On Wednesday, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% for a second straight meeting. Policymakers kept their interest rate outlook intact through 2027 while downgrading economic growth projections.
"Uncertainty is high, and there are many scenarios that could play out, depending on fiscal and trade policies and geopolitical and other developments," Williams said Friday in remarks prepared for a speech at a conference in
The Trump administration has recently proposed or implemented tariff on its key trading partners, including
President
"The current modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy is entirely appropriate given the solid labor market and inflation still running somewhat above our 2% goal," Williams said. "It also positions us well to adjust to changing circumstances that affect the achievement of our dual mandate goals."
US gross domestic product growth this year is expected to "step down" from last year's rate partly because of a slowdown in labor force expansion amid lower immigration rates, Williams said. The disinflationary process has "continued on a bumpy path" toward the FOMC's 2% long-term inflation target, he added.
In the committee's Summary of Economic Projections released Wednesday, the central tendency of projections for GDP growth this year was between about 1.5% and 2%, and for inflation, between 2.5% and 3%, Williams said Friday. "Any of these outcomes -- or even some others outside these ranges -- seem completely plausible to me."
As the New York Fed's head, Williams serves as a permanent voting member of the FOMC.
Markets are currently pricing in an 84% probability that policymakers will again hold interest rates steady in May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The remaining odds are in the favor of a 25-basis-point reduction.
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