Fed's QT pause, Treasury's debt plans may offer fleeting relief to US bonds

Fed minutes from the
Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, declined after the Fed minutes on Wednesday and Bessent's interview injected further optimism pushing yields lower on Thursday.
Still, his remarks did not disrupt market expectations of increased government debt, as investors and analysts anticipate the Treasury will eventually need to borrow more to offset a drop in government revenues from President
"At the same time, if yields are materially lower, then they're probably going to do more tax cuts ... if yields go a lot lower, I think Bessent would try to push to longer-dated bonds," said Khurana.
Analysts at JPMorgan said in a note on Thursday bond market concerns over excessive debt supply could recede into the background over the next months, given the focus of the administration on long-term yields. But they said they still expected large government borrowing needs in the next fiscal year will lead to increases in long-dated debt sales.
Trump plans to renew and expand tax cuts he signed into law during his first presidency in 2017, which are set to expire at the end of this year. This could increase deficits by over
Federal spending cuts driven by
"The push and pull here is that on one side you have what looks to be a meaningful increase in deficit spending from the tax deal, and on the other side there's potentially ... some savings to be found from DOGE, maybe some budget cuts," said
"I don't think this changes our opinion that the long end of the Treasury curve is going to continue to struggle to perform," Kennedy said. "Is DOGE going to be that effective that you're going to save a meaningful amount of money to offset these tax cuts? I'm a little skeptical of that."
Musk has pledged to find
DOGE said on its website on Thursday it had saved
Potentially the market's ability to absorb higher government debt supply could, to some extent, benefit from an unwinding of QT, as the central bank would start reinvesting maturing bonds instead of letting them roll off.
The Fed minutes showed officials are also considering a shift to a bond portfolio that mirrors the maturity of the outstanding Treasury market. The Fed's Treasury holdings are currently skewed towards long-dated debt, so this suggests it could, over time, reinvest more in shorter-dated securities.
"On the margin, this will reduce (but certainly not eliminate) any future auction size increases in 2s and 3s,"
"That being said, the more relevant impact on any eventual auction size increases will come from the budget process as well as the performance of tax revenues," they said.
(Reporting by
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