Analysis-Investors hunt for tariff-proof trades as new trade reality hits

The S&P 500 has lost 7.7% since its post-inauguration peak hit on
Fresh uncertainty about just how far tariffs will eventually go is causing a hunt for protection and trades which offer a buffer.
"We have no idea where we're going to land, where we're going to be over the next three and a half years, with respect to tariffs," said
Trades that could protect against the impact of tariffs include commodities, precious metals such as gold, value and defensive stocks as well as smaller companies and bonds.
"The moves that we've seen in markets so far are a function of flight to safety for the tariff-imposed risk or potential recession. Now we need to think beyond that," said
Allspring's Little is on the hunt for small-cap firms that could benefit from protectionist policies, as they depend less on trade than large caps. He has added some positions like this in recent weeks.
"Companies loaded up their warehouses and are prepped ... for the next three or four months. But the question is: what happens after that?" said Christian.
MORE DOWNSIDE?
There could be more pain, even with the S&P 500 in correction territory.
"Eye-watering tariffs on a country-by-country basis scream 'negotiation tactic,' which will keep markets on edge for the foreseeable future," said
Hetts said the Trump administration had demonstrated surprisingly resilience to market pain.
"Now the big question is how much tolerance it has for true economic pain as negotiations unfold," he said.
The S&P 500 currently trades at about 20.4 times earnings estimates for the next 12 months, well above the long-term average P/E ratio of 15.8, according to LSEG data.
The main concern for investors is whether protectionist trade policies will erode business and consumer confidence, heighten inflation and tip the U.S. into a recession or even stagflation, a mix of sluggish growth and high inflation.
"That's where the corrosive impact of uncertainty can really start to have a negative feedback loop into the economy," Medeiros said.
Ahead of the tariff announcement, recession expectations were rising. This week Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 35% from 20%.
Medeiros, who drafts investment ideas for
"People are still going to pay waste management companies to pick up their garbage, or their cell phone bills," he said.
SECOND-TIER IMPACT
Investors are also concerned about the knock-on effects around the world and how tariffs will change demand for U.S. goods in other markets.
"These tariffs will surely push consumers in
That could alter the "U.S. exceptionalism" narrative, which saw money pour into assets on the expectation that the country would outperform.
"Now the question is whether U.S. exceptionalism is about to change and if so, where that leadership will migrate to," said
Some, however, see a silver lining.
"I think the market will settle down and begin to parse the details and realize it's at worst a mixed bag of news," said
"If they're going to get pinched by this retreat, I'm a buyer on weakness," said Britton. "It's just the market over-reacting, and I'm very happy to take advantage of that."
(Reporting by
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