BofA Securities analyst Shaun C. Kelley shared his first-quarter preview of the gaming sector Monday.

Kelley already adjusted first-quarter estimates for full-year estimates to reflect a more uncertain Macau environment, incorporate regional gaming trends, discuss recent digital trends, tweak Macau share estimates, and lower his price targets to reflect the market re-rating.

It’s been volatile, but gaming stocks are down 12% year-to-date compared to the S&P’s 9% decline.

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Kelley is 5% below the Street in Macau, and given U.S./China tensions, expect a more cautious tone from operators.

The analyst did not think management teams were seeing softness in Las Vegas yet. Still, investors will be hyper-focused on any changes in visitation, bookings, cancellations, or behavior as they exited in March and April following the trade/geopolitical issues.

For regionals, Kelley is slightly below the Street for the first quarter, but visitation has been relatively steady and actually improved in March due to better weather. His 2025 gaming EBITDA estimates are now 2% below the Street.

Kelley’s first-quarter EBITDA estimates for Macau are 5% below the Street, driven by lower market share expectations for US-based operators and margin pressure from a mix shift to premium and concession operating expenditures. The analyst is 10% below the Street for Las Vegas Sands Corp ( LVS ) at $560 million.

For the remainder of 2025, Kelley modeled market-wide Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) up 0.5% (versus +3% prior) and lowered his market share expectations for Las Vegas Sands ( LVS ), given mass-market challenges.

Kelley’s first-quarter Marina Bay Sands estimate for Singapore is $522 million, slightly below consensus.

For Strip, Kelley’s first-quarter estimates are in line with the Street. He is slightly ahead of Wynn Resorts ( WYNN ) , in line with Caesars Entertainment, Inc ( CZR ) , and below the Street for MGM Resorts International ( MGM ) .

Kelley lowered his fiscal 2025 Vegas EBITDA estimates by 2.5% and modeled -1% RevPAR and flat GGR. The analyst’s 2025 estimates are 3% below the Street on a weighted average basis.

While he is now modeling a more cautious consumer outlook, his Vegas room rate survey has been resilient, with rates tracking up +4% for the second quarter.

However, the data on placer visitation to Strip casinos has softened in March and April.

Kelley’s first-quarter estimates for Locals are 2% below the Street for Boyd Gaming Corp ( BYD ) versus the Street driven by local competition and regional weather in the South.

For Regionals: Kelley’s first-quarter regional estimates are 1% below the Street.

Based on limited state data, Kelley estimated that same-store GGR was +5% in January, -5% in February, and -1% in March. The analyst’s Placer visitation data followed a similar trend, suggesting trends are improving month-to-date in April, though Easter timing is creating noise.

Based on March Madness outcomes, the analyst noted DraftKings Inc ( DKNG ) is likely tracking below current Street estimates of $155M.

Kelley will refine his estimates pending more March data but bridged to ~$110-120 million of first-quarter EBITDA.

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