First-quarter delivery figures from Tesla Inc ( TSLA ) could be more anticipated than usual, given intense concerns for demand amid boycotts and lower sales reported in regions in Europe.

Here's a look at key estimates before Tesla reports first-quarter deliveries this week.

What Happened: President Donald Trump purchased a Tesla vehicle in the first quarter of 2025. Now, investors and analysts are closely watching for official delivery figures to see how many thousands of customers worldwide also received their Teslas during the quarter.

Consensus estimates from analysts compiled by Tesla are for first-quarter deliveries of 377,592 units, as reported by Teslarati. This figure comprises 351,893 Model 3/Model Y and 21,241 deliveries of other Tesla models.

Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt recently conducted a poll of followers on X for their predictions on how many vehicles Tesla will deliver in the first quarter. Here are the results from over 10,000 X users:

• Under 350,000: 37.3%
• 350,000 to 360,000: 31.4%
• 360,000 to 370,000: 11.9%
• More than 370,000: 19.4%

The under 350,000 option was the leading vote getter at 37.3% followed by the 350,000 to 360,000 range at 31.4%. In total, 68.7% of respondents see Tesla reporting 360,000 or less deliveries in the first quarter.

Troy Teslike, who predicts Tesla deliveries and production figures, shared his final prediction for the quarter on X. Teslike predicts Tesla will have deliveries of 355,000 units in the first quarter.

On the prediction platform Kalshi, users can wager on Tesla's delivery totals by trading in binary markets—each representing a specific delivery range. Traders buy "Yes" or "No" contracts, with each correct prediction paying out $1.

On Kalshi, the odds of 310,000 deliveries or more and 330,000 deliveries or more have odds of 95% and 94%, respectively. After that,t the odds slide significantly. For 340,000 deliveries, 86% of bettors see this figure as likely to happen, or the equivalent of an 86 cent bet on yes, which would pay out $1 if it is right. For 350,000 deliveries or more, the odds are 56%, paying out a profit of 44 cents on a yes bet of $1 if the company can pass that figure.

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Why It's Important: Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries of 386,810 last year. The electric vehicle company is likely to come under that figure to start 2025 and below analyst estimates, which could be in part due to the political push by Tesla CEO Elon Musk.

The company said it expects its vehicle business to return to growth in 2025, but it could start off on the wrong foot and be counting on a strong second half of the year with catalysts ahead.

Reports of lower-than-expected sales of Tesla vehicles in regions in Europe have likely led to lower estimates. In China, Tesla registrations could be picking up, according to a report from Teslarati.

The week of March 24 through March 30 had 20,700 Tesla vehicles registered in China, the highest reported figure for the quarter, according to reports. The strong delivery figures come after January and February, which had low deliveries before a rebound in late February and early March, helped by the introduction of the new Model Y in the country.

Musk's push into politics has hurt the brand value of Tesla and led to polls showing people are less likely to buy Tesla vehicles in the future. While this could mean weak first-quarter sales, it could become an even bigger storyline into the rest of 2025.

Benzinga recently polled readers on if they would buy a Tesla vehicle.

"Donald Trump recently bought a Tesla. How does this affect your view of Tesla?" Benzinga asked.

Here were the results:

• I will never own a Tesla: 53%
• I'm more likely to buy a Tesla: 23%
• I'm less likely to buy a Tesla: 14%
• I already own a Tesla: 10%

The poll may have some bad news for Tesla fans and investors with the majority saying they will never own a Tesla vehicle.

The good news is that of undecided non-Tesla owners, 23% said they are more likely to buy a Tesla, while 14% said they are less likely to buy a Tesla on account of Trump's purchase and sales pitch for the EV company.

A low delivery figure reported this week could amplify concerns about the demand for Tesla vehicles and lead to lower shares and analysts cutting their price targets.

TSLA Price Action: Tesla is up 3.7% to $268.82 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $488.54. Tesla stock is down 27.5% year-to-date in 2025 and up 56.9% over the last year.

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