Oil rises marginally on tariff exemption, Chinese crude imports

By Arathy Somasekhar

HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices settled slightly higher on Monday on exemptions for some electronics from U.S. tariffs and data showing a sharp rebound in China's crude imports in March, but gains were limited by concerns that the trade war could weaken global economic growth and dent fuel demand.

Brent crude futures closed 12 cents, or 0.2%, higher at $64.88 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 3 cents higher at $61.53.

Late on Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump's administration granted exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers and some other electronic goods imported largely from China. It was the latest in a series of policy announcements that imposed tariffs and then walked them back, spurring uncertainty for investors and businesses.

Trump said on Sunday he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week.

Meanwhile, China's crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months and were up nearly 5% from a year earlier, data showed on Monday, boosted by Iranian oil and a rebound in Russian deliveries.

However, Brent and WTI have lost about $10 a barrel since the start of the month and analysts have lowered oil price forecasts as the trade war between the world's two largest economies has intensified.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report on Monday that global oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, down by 150,000 bpd from last month's forecast, citing trade tariffs among the reasons.

"OPEC cutting its global demand forecast just underscores the troubled outlook we have here from the tariffs and all the other uncertainty in the market," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.

"Markets are still continuing to sort out the impact of the tariffs and this escalation with China," Kilduff said.

Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $63 and WTI to average $59 for the remainder of 2025, with Brent averaging $58 and WTI $55 in 2026.

It sees global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 rising by only 300,000 bpd year on year, analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note, adding that slowing demand is expected to be most pronounced for petrochemical feedstocks.

UBS reduced its Brent forecasts by $12 a barrel to $68. At the same time, it expects WTI to trade at $64 a barrel. JPMorgan lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and next year, citing higher production from OPEC+ and weaker demand.

The Brent price spread between December 2025 and December 2026 has flipped into contango as investors have priced in oversupply and demand concerns, said BMI, part of Fitch Solutions. In a contango market, front-month prices are lower than those in future months, indicating no shortage of supply.

Potentially supporting oil prices, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday the United States could stop Iranian oil exports as part of Trump's plan to pressure Tehran over its nuclear programme.

Iran and the U.S. held "positive" and "constructive" talks in Oman on Saturday and agreed to reconvene next week, officials said over the weekend.

Also hurting prices, South Bow detailed plans for a controlled restart of the Keystone pipeline on Monday after an oil leak last week forced it to shut the key conduit for crude oil between Canada and the United States.

(Reporting by Arathy SomasekharAdditional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar in London, Katya Golubkova in Tokyo, and Florence Tan in SingaporeEditing by David Goodman, Susan Fenton and Rod Nickel)