US Equity Indexes Mixed, Gold Touches Fresh Record High in Midday Trading

12:29 PM EDT, 03/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes traded mixed while gold futures hit a new all-time high intraday ahead of the reciprocal tariff announcements from the Trump administration this week.

The Nasdaq Composite slumped 1.9% to 16,986.1, with the S&P 500 down 0.9% to 5,533.2. Both indexes were off their respective session lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose less than 0.1% to 41,625.3, recovering all its intraday declines. Still, the trio is heading for a quarterly decline.

Communication services, consumer discretionary, and technology were the worst performers. Consumer staples and energy were the top gainers.

President Donald Trump will likely announce an average 15% reciprocal tariff, adding 9 percentage points to the effective tariff rate after exemptions, Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients.

"Along with tariffs imposed to date and sectoral tariffs we still expect, this would result in a 15 [percentage point] total increase," the investment firm said. Its previous estimate was a 10 percentage-point increase in the effective tariff rate.

Goldman also said it raised its 12-month probability of a US recession to 35% from 20% due to a lower growth forecast, declining consumer confidence, and "statements from White House officials indicating willingness to tolerate economic pain." The investment firm said it cut its 2025 Q4-on-Q4 gross domestic product growth forecast by half a percentage point to 1% and raised its 2025 core PCE inflation outlook by half a percentage point to 3.5%.

Gold futures jumped 1% to $3,147.31 after making a fresh intraday all-time high of $ 3,162.00.

Most US Treasury yields fell intraday but were off session lows, with the 10-year yield down 2.3 basis points to 4.23% and the two-year rate one basis point lower at 3.9%.

Meanwhile, in economic news Monday, the Institute for Supply Management's Chicago PMI reading rose to 47.6 in March from 45.5 in February, higher than the expected 45 print in a survey compiled by Bloomberg but still indicating contraction in the sector. The sub-50 reading matches almost all the other regional manufacturing data already released for March. The national ISM manufacturing index for March will be released on Tuesday.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures surged 3% to $71.44 a barrel.

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