Australia forecasts hit to resource, energy export earnings from lower US dollar

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia's mining and energy export earnings are expected to fall 6% in the financial year through June, with prices of its key iron ore shipments declining, the government said on Monday.

Profits are forecast fall to A$387 billion ($243 billion) from A$415 billion the previous year due to "the impact of lower U.S. dollar prices for our resource and energy exports", the Department of Industry said in its quarterly resources and energy outlook.

The forecast decline was smaller than the 10% drop predicted in December.

"Further modest falls in earnings are likely over the five-year outlook," steadying at A$343 billion near the end of that period, the report said.

The value of Australia's energy exports was returning to moderate levels after experiencing "extremely high levels" in 2021-22 and 2022-23, it said.

"The high prices set during that period - due to the COVID-19 pandemic, bad weather and the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine - encouraged a rise in energy supply."

Iron ore will remain the mainstay of Australia's commodity exports, the report said, although it forecast prices of the steelmaking ingredient would fall on strong growth in global supply and lower demand from China.

Iron ore exports to China from Australia's Port Hedland, a strong indicator of Chinese industrial activity, fell by 14.8% in February.

($1 = 1.5906 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Sam McKeith in Sydney; Editing by William Mallard)