Tesla First-Quarter Deliveries to Miss Views Amid Weakness in China, Europe, RBC Says

10:58 AM EDT, 03/28/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Tesla (TSLA) is expected to report first-quarter vehicle deliveries below Wall Street's estimates amid pronounced weakness in China and Europe, RBC Capital Markets said in a client note emailed Friday.

The brokerage is projecting 364,372 deliveries for the quarter, compared with a consensus that calls for 398,400 deliveries. Tesla, which delivered 495,570 vehicles in the final quarter of 2024, is expected to release its latest delivery report next week.

RBC analyst Tom Narayan projects sequential delivery declines of about 48% in China and 20% in Europe. The US tally is expected to drop 5.4%. China accounts for 40% to 45% of total deliveries, while Europe is at 15% to 20% and the US at 35% to 40%, according to the brokerage.

In China, deliveries in January and February were down about 57%, compared with the October-November period, Narayan said. Additionally, there are signs suggesting a weaker number for March versus December.

European deliveries for the first two months of the quarter were about 33% lower, compared with October and November, with sales being hit by European Union tariffs on Chinese exports, RBC said.

Bloomberg News reported in January that the electric vehicle maker planned to temporarily shutdown part of the lines manufacturing the upgraded version of Tesla's Model Y sport utility vehicle in Shanghai.

The first-quarter delivery report will likely reflect the expected impact of the shutdown on January and February numbers, according to RBC. The brokerage also forecasts some demand delay ahead of a new affordable model to be launched in the second quarter.

Earlier in the week, the White House announced 25% tariffs on imported passenger vehicles and certain auto parts.

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