SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

05:56 AM EDT, 03/28/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Societe Generale in its early Friday economic news summary pointed out:

-- Risk off, Euro Stoxx -0.3%, gold at new record (+17% QTD), reciprocal United States tariffs next week. Below forecast consumer price index for France and Spain boosts the probability of a European Central Bank rate cut in April. United Kingdom retail sales strong. Mexico's Banxico cut 50bps on Thursday, statement dovish.

-- What tariffs to expect in next Wednesday's U.S. tariffs? Reciprocal tariffs to focus on those with large trade surpluses over the U.S. (China, European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, Japan etc). Sector specific tariffs to hurt U.S. allies, including Mexico, Germany, Canada, South Korea and Japan.

-- France HICP unchanged in March at 0.9% year over year, services edge up to 2.3%. Spain HICP slows to 2.2%, core down to 2.0%.

# Tokyo core CPI firms to 2.4% yoy in March from 2.2% in February. Headline up to 2.9% from 2.8%, keeps BoJ on rate hike path.

-- Day ahead: U.S. PCE index, SocGen forecasts 0.2% month over month, core +0.3%. Federal Reserve's Barr and Bostic. ECB's Nagel and Muller. ECB one- and three-year CPI expectations. Italy benchmark auction.

-- Nikkei -1.8%, EUR 10-year IRS -5.5bps at 2.635%, Brent crude -0.4% at $73.8/barrel, Gold +1% at $3,085/oz.

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