Goldman Sachs Shifts Oil Sector Outlook: Par Pacific Set For Rebound, Phillips 66 Faces Challenges

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Goldman Sachs Shifts Oil Sector Outlook: Par Pacific Set For Rebound, Phillips 66 Faces Challenges

, Benzinga - 2:10 PM ET 3/27/2025 default

Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta revised the rating and updated estimates on Thursday for several major American oil companies.

The revision reflects average $75/b Brent oil prices in 2025 and 2026, consistent with the Goldman Sachs Commodities team’s updated oil range of $65-$80/b, writes the analyst.

PARR: The analyst upgraded Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. ( PARR ) from Neutral to Buy and raised the price forecast from $18 to $19.

The bullish stance reflects the company’s year-to-date underperformance relative to the S&P, highlighting strong upside potential from the Retail and Logistics segment and expectations of a margin rebound in the Singapore region.

Also, the analyst says that PARR’s Hawaii refining operations are well-positioned to gain from a margin recovery.

Additionally, the analyst remains optimistic about the earnings contributions from the Logistics and Retail segments.

The analyst now estimates 2025-2026 EPS of $0.67 (from $0.79) and $2.97 (from $2.73 prior).

This reflects mark-to-market cracks and commodity prices for the quarter so far, refining capture rate updates, and modifications to throughput, operating expenses, Logistics and Retail earnings, and share repurchases.

IMO: Mehta downgraded Imperial Oil Limited ( IMO ) from Neutral to Sell and reiterated a price forecast of C$90.00.

The analyst writes that he acknowledges the company’s strong operational performance, particularly at key assets like Kearl and Cold Lake.

Regardless, Mehta sees its value proposition as less distinct in 2025/2026, with a lower capital returns yield compared to peers.

The analyst estimates cash flow per share of C$2.91 for first-quarter FY25 (vs FactSet consensus of C$3.20).

For 2025-2026, Mehta now estimates EPS estimates of C$8.35 (from C$8.04) and C$9.06 (from C$9.65 prior) vs. consensus of C$8.23 and C$8.94, respectively.

PSX: The analyst also downgraded Phillips 66 from Buy to Neutral and maintained the price forecast of $132.

Although the analyst appreciates the company’s diversified business mix, Midstream earnings contributions and cost reduction efforts, he plans to monitor for updates on operational improvements in Refining amid weaker Chemicals margin environment.

Mehta estimates EPS of $7.39 (from $7.69 earlier) for 2025 and $13.17 (from $12.75 prior).

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