Tesla's Declining Favorability Will Likely Dent Deliveries, Revenue in 2025, Oppenheimer Says

01:25 PM EDT, 03/18/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Tesla's (TSLA) declining favorability among consumers amid Chief Executive Elon Musk's involvement in politics will likely hurt deliveries and revenue this year, Oppenheimer said Tuesday.

The brokerage cut its 2025 delivery target by 30,000 units. It lowered its revenue and earnings per share estimates to $97.9 billion and $1.56, respectively, from $99.8 billion and $1.58. The average analyst estimate on FactSet is for revenue of $111.48 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.81 in the current year.

Shares of Tesla were down 4.2% in afternoon trade, taking its year-to-date loss to nearly 44%.

A recent YouGov poll showed that consumers' impression of Tesla fell to a score of minus 12.7%, compared with an average rise of about 17% for other car makers, according to the Oppenheimer report.

Musk, a key campaigner for US President Donald Trump in the 2024 election, heads the Department of Government Efficiency, which aims to cut federal spending.

"With investors now fully aware of the consumer backlash on (Musk's) political activities and sales expectations for 2025 declining, we believe the next leg of the (Tesla) trade will be determined by the company's ability to replace a portion of its consumer base, while demonstrating progress on key autonomy and (artificial intelligence) initiatives," a group of Oppenheimer analysts including Colin Rusch wrote in a note to clients.

The electric vehicle maker might seek to target buyers who lean politically conservative. Conservatives' views on the company have improved to 7.6%, compared with a flat reading in 2022, according to the research report, which cited the YouGov poll.

"We see conservative buyers as an incremental positive, but note service, infrastructure, and product fit mismatch as limiting depth of demand," Rusch said.

Meanwhile, Tesla's progress on Full Self-Driving has improved, but remains challenged, according to Oppenheimer. The brokerage maintained its "negative bias near term" on autonomy and AI initiatives.

Oppenheimer now expects Tesla to break even on free cash flow this year, noting that downside to the brokerage's delivery forecast could push the metric into negative territory.

Price: 228.70, Change: -9.31, Percent Change: -3.91

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