US natgas prices ease 1% on milder forecasts, lower LNG feedgas

        *
      March-April 'widow maker' futures spread trading in unusual contango


        *
      Spot prices at Waha Hub in West Texas rise to highest since January


        *
      Feedgas to LNG export plants drops to one-month low on Monday



 (Adds latest prices)
    By Scott DiSavino
       Dec 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Tuesday on forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand
than previously expected and a decline in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to a one-month low.
    Front-month gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.9 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at
$3.163 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
    Some analysts have said that winter, and the high prices it usually brings, could be over before the season officially starts now
that the heavily traded March-April "widow maker" spread is trading in unusual contango. That means the April contract is priced
higher than the March contract.
    March is the last month of the winter storage withdrawal season, and April is the first month of the summer storage injection
season. Because gas is primarily a winter heating fuel, summer prices typically do not trade above winter ones.
    It is possible that gas prices hit their 2024 peak in November when they reached $3.56 per mmBtu. Over the past five years, prices
hit their yearly highs in January 2023, August 2022, October 2021 and 2020, and January 2019.
    In the spot market, the combination of new pipelines like the Matterhorn and cold weather in West Texas helped boost next-day gas
prices at the Waha hub in the Permian shale, the nation's biggest oil-producing basin, to their highest since
January.
    New pipelines this year enabled Permian producers to sell more of the gas that had been trapped in the constrained basin. Those
pipeline constraints caused gas prices at the Waha to fall into negative territory a record number of times this year.

    SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 102.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in
December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.
    Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through Dec. 25.
    With warmer weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would drop from 128.6 bcfd this
week to 121.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
    The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.0 bcfd so far in December, up
from 13.6 bcfd in November. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
    On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas fell to a one-month low of 13.2 bcfd on Monday due mostly to a drop in flows to Cheniere
Energy's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass plant in Louisiana to a one-month low of 4.2 bcfd. That compares with average flows to Sabine of
4.8 bcfd over the past seven days.

                                                                    Week ended    Week ended    Year ago     Five-year
                                                                       Dec 6        Nov 29        Dec 6       average
                                                                     Forecast       Actual                     Dec 6
 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):                              -138           -30          -72          -71
 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):                                   3,799         3,937        3,680        3,582
 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average                              6.1%          7.8%


 Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)                         Current Day    Prior Day   This Month    Prior Year    Five-Year
                                                                                                Last Year   Average 2023    Average
                                                                                                                          (2018-2022)
 Henry Hub                                                             3.12          3.18         2.54          2.66          3.60
 Title Transfer Facility (TTF)                                         13.83         13.92        11.55        13.04         14.39
 Japan Korea Marker (JKM)                                              15.06         15.08        14.03        14.39         14.31


 LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
 Two-Week Total Forecast                                            Current Day    Prior Day   Prior Year   10-Year Norm  30-Year Norm
 U.S. GFS HDDs                                                          332           355          319          382           406
 U.S. GFS CDDs                                                           3             2            3            5             4
 U.S. GFS TDDs                                                          335           357          322          387           410

 LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
                                                                    Prior Week      Current     Next Week    This Week     Five-Year
                                                                                     Week                    Last Year    (2019-2023)
                                                                                                                          Average For
                                                                                                                             Month
 U.S. Supply (bcfd)
 U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production                                              102.6        103.0        102.4         105.6          97.8
 U.S. Imports from Canada                                                    9.6          9.7          9.3           N/A           8.7
 U.S. LNG Imports                                                            0.0          0.0          0.0           0.1           0.2
 Total U.S. Supply                                                         112.2        112.7        111.7           N/A         106.7

 U.S. Demand (bcfd)
 U.S. Exports to Canada                                                      2.7          3.1          3.0           N/A           3.4
 U.S. Exports to Mexico                                                      5.6          5.7          5.7           N/A           5.4
 U.S. LNG Exports                                                           14.2         13.8         14.2          14.7          10.8
 U.S. Commercial                                                            17.3         15.1         13.6          13.8          14.3
 U.S. Residential                                                           28.9         24.8         22.2          22.3          23.4
 U.S. Power Plant                                                           34.1         33.1         30.4          34.2          30.3
 U.S. Industrial                                                            26.0         25.1         24.4          24.7          25.1
 U.S. Plant Fuel                                                             5.1          5.1          5.1           5.1           5.2
 U.S. Pipe Distribution                                                      3.0          2.8          2.6           3.1           3.7
 U.S. Vehicle Fuel                                                           0.1          0.1          0.1           0.1           0.1
 Total U.S. Consumption                                                    114.6        106.1         98.4         103.3         102.1
 Total U.S. Demand                                                         137.2        128.6        121.3           N/A         121.7

 N/A is Not Available

 U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam    2025 Current      2025         2024          2003          2022
                                                                        Day        Prior Day   % of Normal  % of Normal   % of Normal
                                                                    % of Normal   % of Normal    Actual        Actual        Actual
                                                                     Forecast      Forecast
 Apr-Sep                                                                89            89           74            83           107
 Jan-Jul                                                                86            86           76            77           102
 Oct-Sep                                                                86            86           77            76           103


 U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
                                                                    Week ended    Week ended      2023          2022          2021
                                                                      Dec 13         Dec 6
 Wind                                                                   14             9           10            11            10
 Solar                                                                   3             4            4            3             3
 Hydro                                                                   5             5            6            6             7
 Other                                                                   1             1            2            2             2
 Petroleum                                                               0             0            0            0             0
 Natural Gas                                                            38            42           41            38            37
 Coal                                                                   17            20           17            21            23
 Nuclear                                                                21            19           19            19            20

 SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
 Hub                                                                Current Day    Prior Day
 Henry Hub 3.05         2.83
 Transco Z6 New York 2.66         2.68
 PG&E Citygate 3.43         3.40
 Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) 2.57         2.54
 Chicago Citygate 2.77         2.58
 Algonquin Citygate 3.41         6.92
 SoCal Citygate 3.70         3.47
 Waha Hub 2.82         2.19
 AECO 1.25         1.19

 SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
 Hub                                                                Current Day    Prior Day
 New England 64.25        89.00
 PJM West 34.75        41.00
 Ercot North 29.50        42.75
 Mid C 57.75        53.71
 Palo Verde 40.00        31.75
 SP-15 39.50        30.75

 (Reporting by Scott DiSavino
Editing by Christina Fincher and Daniel Wallis)