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Market Roundup: March 31, 2025

Our pros' weekly take on the markets and economy

Surveys show consumers and businesses are feeling uncertain about looming tariffs

Let’s take a closer look…

  • A survey last week noted that consumers’ outlook for income, business, and jobs dropped below 2022 levels—a time when inflation and interest rates rose dramatically.1 These numbers likely reflect that consumers are concerned about the potential impacts that tariffs may have on the economy.

  • How are businesses reacting? Recent data illustrates that uncertainty regarding trade policy drove US businesses to curb their spending plans.2 This is a reversal from the optimism businesses showed in the final months of 2024.

  • Despite these gloomy expectations, weekly jobless claims remain historically low.3 Additionally, higher household net worth (helped by rising home values) has supported consumer spending.4 Furthermore, the service industry (i.e., financial, consumer, and all other business services) shows healthy levels of growth.5

  • While markets expect more US tariff details in early April, the full economic impact will likely take some time to play out. In the meantime, investors may need to buckle up for more market turbulence. As we’ve seen so far in 2025, a diversified market portfolio has experienced much less volatility than the US stock market.6 Check out Fidelity’s guide to diversification.
Lars Schuster

Institutional Portfolio Manager, Strategic Advisers LLC


"Survey responses and actual behavior often tell different stories. While consumer sentiment is worth monitoring, concrete metrics—such as employment figures, wages, spending patterns, and corporate earnings—tend to carry greater weight. That’s why our investment team considers a wide array of indicators to glean the full economic story."

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More to explore

1. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, Present Situations Index, and Expectations Index, released March 25, 2025.
2. National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), small business expenditures index, updated March 11, 2025.
3. U.S. Department of Labor, weekly jobless claims, based on four week moving average, as of March 27, 2025.
4. U.S. FOF (Flow of Funds Accounts) Household Net Worth, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), release March 13, 2025, data as of December 31, 2024. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index as of January 31, 2025.
5. S&P Global US Manufacturing & Services PMI, released March 24, 2025.
6. Volatility is measured by standard deviation, year-to-date through March 26, 2025. A hypothetical diversified market portfolio represented by 42% Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, 18% MSCI EAFE Index, 35% Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, 5% Bloomberg 3-Month Treasury Bill Index and is rebalanced monthly. US stocks represented by 100% Dow US Total Stock Market Index.

Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.

Indexes are unmanaged. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index is standardized confidence indicator based on consumers assessments of the labor market, business activity, and their own financial conditions. The Present Situation Index is based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions. The Expectations Index is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions.
The NFIB small business optimism index is compiled from a survey that is conducted each month by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) of its members. The index is a composite of 10 seasonally adjusted components based on the following questions: plans to increase employment, plans to make capital outlays, plans to increase inventories, expect economy to improve, expect real sales higher, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, now a good time to expand, and earnings trend.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction.
The S&P Global U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a survey-based economic indicator, designed to provide a timely insight into business conditions. Each national PMI dataset is compiled from questionnaire responses from a survey panel of senior purchasing executives (or similar) at around 400 companies. The survey panels are carefully recruited to accurately represent the true structure of the monitored sector: manufacturing, services, construction or the entire private sector economy.
The S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization–weighted index of 500 common stocks chosen for market size, liquidity, and industry group representation to represent U.S. equity performance.
The Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index is a float-adjusted market capitalization–weighted index of all equity securities of US headquartered companies with readily available price data.
The MSCI ACWI ex USA Index (Net MA Tax) is a market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the investable equity market performance for global investors of large and mid cap stocks in developed and emerging markets, excluding the United States. Index returns are adjusted for tax withholding rates applicable to U.S. based mutual funds organized as Massachusetts business trusts (NR).
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The index includes Treasuries, government-related and corporate securities, mortgage-back securities (agency fixed-rate pass-throughs), asset-backed securities and collateralized mortgage-backed securities (agency and non-agency).
The views expressed in the foregoing commentary were prepared by Strategic Advisers LLC (Strategic Advisers), based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but not guaranteed. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions provided are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Fidelity Investments. This commentary is for informational purposes only and is not intended to constitute a current or past recommendation, investment advice of any kind, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or investment services. The information and opinions presented are current only as of the date of writing, without regard to the date on which you may access this information. All opinions and estimates are subject to change at any time without notice.

Strategic Advisers LLC (Strategic Advisers) is a registered investment adviser and a Fidelity Investments company.

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