If you’re a Social Security beneficiary, you can expect a boost in your checks starting in 2025.

While the official Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) won’t be released until Oct. 10, the increase for next year is estimated at 2.5 percent, according to The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior citizens group. That number is based on data from the Department of Labor’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

A 2.5 percent increase would raise the average Social Security payment for retired workers from $1,920.48 (as of August 2024) to $1,968.49 in 2025, an increase of $48.01. You’ll notice the COLA increase on your monthly checks starting in January.

Social Security benefits: How much will they increase in 2025?

Here’s how a Social Security COLA breaks down for different recipients.

Next year’s COLA is expected to be much smaller than the record-breaking 8.7 percent increase seen in 2023. That unusually large bump — the biggest in more than four decades — was triggered by the sharp rise in inflation from 2021 to 2022.

However, the anticipated 2.5 percent increase for 2025 is in line with the average COLA of about 2.6 percent over the past 20 years, according to the Senior Citizens League.

How Social Security COLA is calculated

The Social Security Administration calculates the new COLA by measuring the increase in the CPI-W for the third quarter of this year with the third quarter of last year. Numbers from the Consumer Price Index for July and August — along with projections for September — help organizations like the Senior Citizens League predict the COLA ahead of time.

Social Security payments are a lifeline for millions of Americans, with an estimated 72.6 million people receiving some form of Social Security benefits in August 2024.

While COLA estimates give you a good idea of what to expect next year, it doesn’t paint the full picture. The standard Medicare Part B premium — which most beneficiaries have deducted directly from their benefit payments — will likely go up next year, too.

In its annual report released in March, the Medicare Trustees forecasted a monthly Part B premium hike of roughly $10.30, from $174.70 in 2024 to $185 in 2025. An increase in the Part B premium essentially means Social Security beneficiaries keep less of the new COLA.

The official 2025 Medicare Part B premium increase will be released sometime before November.