Market summary: Uncertainty remains due to geopolitical conflict and inflation
Q1 markets took a pause as concerns about the viability of artificial intelligence investments rose to the forefront, and global equity and bond markets declined as the conflict in Iran took center stage. While both stocks and bonds came under pressure, commodities posted strong returns.
Oil markets soared, spiking as high as $120 per barrel in response to the conflict in Iran. The current oil price is higher than the prices of contracts for future delivery—a scenario that suggests the market anticipates a relatively fast resolution, followed by a steady decline in energy costs.
The financial landscape remains incredibly dynamic, and there is no shortage of trends that are defining the 2026 market. Investors face unknowns regarding tariffs, sticky inflation, policy volatility, government debt, and interest rate uncertainty. The ongoing market challenges and geopolitical uncertainty reinforce the importance of diversification in fixed income and inflation-resistant assets.
Economy/macro: A variety of business cycle dynamics
The US economy showed solid economic activity despite softness in the job market. The broader global economy remains in a solid, unsynchronized expansion with international policies underpinning growth.
Ongoing demographic and labor market pressures: The labor market continued to soften throughout Q1, but low unemployment claims suggest recession risk is minimal. Fidelity’s proprietary data on 20 million payrolls highlights an increase in job growth that may signal stabilizing labor demand, and tight supply from stricter immigration policy and an aging workforce has prevented a significant rise in the unemployment rate. Positive wage growth and strong household balance sheets supported consumers, although lower income households saw slower net worth and wage growth. The US consumer is less sensitive to energy prices compared to history; however, the economy is more sensitive to large swings in asset prices, as most of the wealth is concentrated in older households and stocks.
Inflation remains above target: Tariffs have contributed to rising goods prices, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target. Inflation in the housing and services sectors has moderated but remains elevated. Markets raised their inflation expectations as costs associated with tariffs, rising energy prices, and stable US growth may prolong how long it takes for inflation to normalize.
While the Fed and markets were leaning toward further easing in 2026, oil supply shocks added more uncertainty to both headline and core inflation, leading the market to reassess the likelihood of further cuts.
Unease around fiscal deficits and political influence on Fed decision-making may challenge further decline in longer-term yields.
See our interactive chart presentation for an in-depth analysis.
Asset markets: Strong earnings despite volatility
Commodities and energy stocks led the charge in Q1 amid ongoing global inflation concerns. Markets also experienced modest gains from value and mid-cap equities.
Commodities: Commodities (+24.4%) gained the most, driven by persistent inflation, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and demand for real assets in a volatile environment.
Fixed income: Fixed income markets experienced higher yields across all major categories, led by higher Treasury yields. Most fixed income asset classes ended Q1 at or above their 50th percentile of yields, which indicates that bond valuations are almost in line with long-term averages and offer stable income within a diversified portfolio. Credit spreads, however, remained historically tight.
Equities: By sector, energy (38.2%) surged in Q1 as oil prices spiked, whereas communication services (−6.9%) and information technology (−9.1%) sectors declined. By region, international equities ended on a varied note. Canada (1.3%) and Latin America (14.6%) showed signs of strength, while other regions, including Europe (−2.8%) and Emerging Asia (−1.5%), declined. By investment style, value stocks (+2.2%) led the way, while growth stocks (−9.5%) and large caps (−4.5%) lagged.
Outlook: We continue to expect substantial volatility, but periods of heightened uncertainty often correspond with potential innovation and market leadership opportunities, such as advancing artificial intelligence-driven capabilities. Secular changes may also provide greater global active opportunities across countries, industries, and companies.
Looking ahead, we believe maintaining a well-diversified portfolio and focusing on long-term objectives remain critical for investors.